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Sunday Tweeners: Monday Edition

As per usual, I'm bringing you the Sunday Tweeners. The only difference is that it's Monday, which isn't quite the normal date for a collumn I'm supposed to do on Sundays.  Oh well, such is life.

This week I've got just a few tweeners for dissection. Follow me over the jump for the dirt.

Star-divide

Grizzlies have most difficult schedule in NBA: Using their difficulty of schedule predicitons, Basketball Prospectus has found that the Grizzlies have the most difficult schedule in the NBA for the second straight year. This is because Memphis is a member of the extremely competitive Southwest division of the Western Conference, which means they have four games against the Hornets, Rockets, Mavericks, and Spurs. While their rankings do factor changes in rosters, the difficulty rankings are primarily based on last year's records and team advanced statistics. No other division in the NBA had four playoff teams, so the Grizzlies faired poorly in schedule difficulty. Additionally, as Ziller noted over at Sactown Royalty, teams like the Grizzlies and Kings suffer from not playing against temselves. 

Two caveats are worth noting, though. First the Rockets will likely not be nearly as dangerous this season without Yao Ming, so these projections could be slightly overblown. Second, the NBA enjoys more schedule parity than, say, the NFL, because they don't play that many more games against conference teams in comparison to the total number of games. What does this mean? If the Cavs and the Grizzlies were both exactly average quality teams, the Cavs would only get three more wins then the Grizzlies, despite having the easiest schedule.

Writer of famed 'firing of scouts' article didn't even contact Michael Heisley: In an exclusive interview with our friends over at 3 Shades of Blue, Michael Heisley noted that Geoff Calkins, who broke the news of the scouts firings, never even contacted the owner before making a public attack against his ownership practices. While Calkins is a columnist, not a reporter, and doesn't HAVE to contact all parties to check his facts or deliver unbiased news, he was breaking a story, so Heisley clearly would have appreciated a bit of journalistic integrity.

NBA Fanhouse claims Grizzlies traded for Zach Randolph to avoid minimum salary: In Tom Ziller's opinion the Memphis Grizzlies are making moves to purposefully negotiate around paying the actual minimum salary. Essentially Zach Randolph has an odd contract that pays late, so the last team with him on the payroll is on the hook for a significant bonus. That bonus is spread over the length of his contract for cap purposes, though, so Ziller is hypothesizing the Grizzlies traded for Randolph so they could actually pay less than minimum salary while being over for the purposes of NBA collective bargaining rules.

Ziller is a smart guy and great NBA writer, but I can't say that I agree with his assessment. The Grizzlies could have targeted either Paul Millsap or David Lee in free agency, and, as I've noted previously, Lee was probably the best choice. But I'm not sure that this claim is altogether a fair assessment, since the Grizzlies essentially traded a $7 million expiring contract for Randolph. Acquiring any other starting power forward would likely have required the Grizzlies to overpay for their services because of the tenants of restricted free agency, or give up a player with actually basketball value in trade. I don't like Randolph, but it's difficult to claim the Grizzlies won't get more value out of him than Darko or Q-Rich.

The Memphis Grizzlies have entered contract extensions with Rudy Gay: Again breaking news, 3 Shades of Blue got a report from Chris Wallace that the Grizzlies have entered very preliminary contract extension talks with Rudy Gay and his agent. I really hope Rudy gets extended, I don't hesitate to say he is my favorite player on the team and one of my favorites in the league. Also the way the Grizzlies handle Rudy's extension will be a clear indication of whether Heisley really is in cost-cutting, fire sale mode, or if they really are committed to keeping finances open to preserve their young core.

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David Lee?

I agree with most of your analyses on this site, but I’m sorry, I refuse to believe that David Lee was/is the answer for this team. He gets his points off of hustle and putbacks, not his ability to create his own shot (he can’t). I read your breakdown on the trade, and PER, etc., etc. Still not convincing me that David Lee makes us a better team than Zach Randolph. Lee would tie up 10 mil a year for 5-6 years on a team with not a lot of money to spend, and for what? A role player? A 10/10 guy? Maybe the 4th scoring option behind our 1, 2, and 3, and that’s assuming Marc Gasol doesn’t have a breakout 2nd season? No thanks. He’s not fast enough, he can’t guard the Amare’s and Boozers of the league, and he’s not exactly a scorer either. His rebounds are at least somewhat reflective of the pace of the D’Antoni offense in NY as well.

I think a lot of the pro-Lee camp comes from the fact that Zach is our other option, and I’m not buying the “Add a 20-10 guy to your team, and you get worse” crap that’s been trotted out by every NBA blogger across the country. It’s not like the Knicks and Clippers were collecting rings like baseball cards and Zach Randolph came in and messed it up for everyone. He’s one of those players that has gotten on the bad side of the media, and b/c of that, every single bball fan in the nation believes that he instantly makes your team lose 20 games a year. Could he be more mature? Sure. Is he a defensive dynamo? Of course not. But is David Lee vs. Zach Randolph even a question? No.

by hueyproductions on Aug 11, 2009 12:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Well, Lee...

Would have cost about $6 million a year less, is a better character guy, is younger, and is the definition of a fan favorite. I don’t think the Grizzlies got worse by adding Randolph, that would be stupid, but I don’t think he is as good of an option as Lee was. There is significant evidence that if Lee took as many shots as Randolph does he would actually outscore him.

Also, arguing Lee’s rebounds are a product of D’Antoni’s system is only true for about .8 rebounds a game when you adjust for pace. On the other hand, Zach Randolph only scores about 5 ppg more than David Lee while using like 12% more of his team’s possessions. In other words, Z-Bo’s high scoring is as much a function of his poor shot selection and unwillingness to pass as David Lee’s rebounding was a function of the Knicks system.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Aug 11, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Got a better question

Does Zach Randolph keep the options open for Memphis? After all, his contract expires in 2011. Any deal Lee signed would have to be at least for 4 years.

Personally, and you know I hate Heisley turtle, but I think the move the Grizz made was wise in regards to Randolph vs Lee.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Aug 11, 2009 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

And one example of this (total example)

Is what if Houston decides that cutting down the Lux Tax this season is worth taking on Randolph’s money this year? Houston and Memphis trade Z-Bo for T-Mac straight up. Memphis knocks off that extra year, and Z-Bo is Houston’s problem.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Aug 11, 2009 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

You’re probably right about the rebounding. But you are too big a bball fan to believe that Lee would score just as much/more with more shots. Since a lot of his shots come on put backs off of misses, those are obviously going to be higher percentage shots. For him to get more shots than that, they’d have to start running plays for him or giving it to him in the post. That’s going to bring the percentage down. Saying that Lee would score more points with more shots b/c his percentages are higher is like saying Erick Dampier (who shot 65% last season) would have won the scoring title if they just got him the ball more.

by hueyproductions on Aug 12, 2009 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

Understood

Admittedly he isn’t the isolation player Randolph is, but Randolph also isn’t the isolation player that he thinks he is. It is two different directions, with Lee the Grizzlies would have really needed bench scoring, with Randolph its less of a concern.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Aug 12, 2009 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

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