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Star or Black Hole? The Statistical Myth of Zach Randolph

A solid fanpost by ClippersCurse that I've cleaned up a little bit and thrown up on the front page. -djturtleface

When you type in "Zach Randolph" in google with "black hole" and "cancer," titles like Trading for Zach Randolph is Basketball Suicide, Back Hole Sun: Do the Grizzlies Really Not pass? (editors note: glad to see you found a Straight Outta Vancouver post on Google), and so forth. Looking through some of the discussion boards, you see things like "Zach i who thinks he is god, is a retarded SOBblack hole, doesn't defend, is overweight, has a terrible attitude, and did I mention he's a cancer?"

Star-divide

Zachrandolph3_medium

Let me begin this article by saying that I have never been a Zach Randolph fan. In fact I hate his attitude on and off the court. Why am I even writing this article? Because I believe ESPN has overblown Z-bo's negatives. Too many of today's internet writers just copy whatever ESPN churns out. These writers quote ESPN like its the Bible.

Let's check the statistics. Now, I know before I even bring up his stats, you are going to think, "Oh, sure Z-bo is a statsheet stuffer, but he doesn't pass the ball." I am going to show you stats that show you he is a very good low post scoring threat who's deficiencies have been condemned unjustly.

First of all, I want to dispute the notion that Zach Randolph is lazy. Yes, he is a piece of fat lard but that doesn't mean he is lazy. Lets use rebounding as a measure of effort. To get rebounds, you have to do either - (1) be really tall, (2) jump really high, (3) get in a good position and box out your man. Randolph is 6'9" and he really doesn't jump very high for NBA standards. So that means he works and gets in position for rebounds. Discounting his first 2 years, Randolph averaged more than 10 rebounds for 5 of the last 7 seasons.

Lets compare that to Rasheed Wallace who is a 4-time all-star and plays just a tad more minutes per game than Randolph. How many seasons have he gotten over 10 rebounds per game? 0. In face, he has only averaged 8 or more in 2 seasons out of his entire career.

If the rebounding averages didn't convince you, lets go into advanced statistics.  In Career defensive rebound percentage, Sheed is at 18.7%, Z-bo is at 22.9% and over 25% for the past 3 seasons. Just for the heck of it, I will throw in KG's godly rebounding numbers. KG is at 25.6% career and had 4 seasons of 29.7% or higher during his prime. Oh, and Z-bo doubles Rasheed's offensive rebounds averages, so don't even go there.

So he is really not that lazy, but he is a big black hole on offense right? The simplest  stats to look at is assists averages. Rasheed: 1.9, Z-Bo: 1.7. Both numbers are well within the norm for primary inside scoring options. Z-bo has actually averaged 1.9 and getting higher if his 2 seasons of riding the pine in Portland gets taken out.  To be more accurate and delve further into passing, Randolph's career assist percentage (10.6) is actually higher than Rasheed's (9.8).

Alright. So he passes the ball just like other power forwards, but he jacks up shots and turn the ball over. Looking at turnover averages for number one inside scoring option, Randolph is again right smack down the middle. He does not turn the ball over particularly more than others. His average is the same as Bosh. Rasheed only gets 1.6 TO per game, but I would argue that he really isn't an inside force anymore and hasn't been a number one option for a very long time.

Here are the shooting statistics for Rasheed and Zach respectively: FG% .471, TS% .539, eFG% .510, versus FG% .466 TS% .520 eFG% .472. So the shooting percentage favors Rasheed, but only slightly. I said slightly because Rasheed's three-point shooting skews the true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage in his favor. In the past 2 seasons since Randolph started shooting some 3s, the numbers have been almost identical (Editors note: Stats would actually tell you that Randolph really is less efficient when shooting the three, but fair enough.). You also have to take into consideration that Wallace has always been on teams with better teammates. Also Rasheed takes less shots and scores way less points, which should help his efficiency.

In my humble opinion, Z-bo would be a really good fit with in Cleveland with Lebron being the undisputed leader and first option. I really believed that had Cleveland courted Randolph and offered the Clippers a similar 2nd round pick, the Cavs would be the consensus NBA champ from Day 1. Lebron's dominance on the offense end coupled with Mike Brown's emphasis on defense(with the support of Lebron) already has the Cavs as perennial contender. Add in Randolph's inside scoring and rebounding, they would be unstoppable.  And there would be no argument on getting more shots as long as Lebron is in charge. Now that he is in Memphis will ballhogs Gay, Mayo, and AI, Z-bo will probably nullify everything I just wrote and be a malcontent player. (Editors note: Mayo and A.I. have decent assist rates for shooting guards, especially since Mayo was only a rookie.)

I never thought I would ever say this but.. please Zach Randolph, show 'the experts' that you are a star and not a black hole.

Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

More original NBA commentary on clipperscurse.com

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Is Zach Randolph a positive or negative acquisition?
Positive
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Negative
24 votes

49 votes | Poll has closed

FanPosts do not necessarily represent the opinions of myself, and may include questionable or unreliable material.

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments

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The idea that he is a Black Hole

may or may not be refuted by statistics. Opinions about Zach do not result from reading box scores but watching him play. Did you watch him as a Clipper?

Whether AI or Mayo or Zach have excellent or just average assist lines is beside the point. All three need the ball to be effective. There is one ball. And three players who need the ball. And Rudy Gay off sulking

"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy

by Honka Playboy on Sep 18, 2009 3:52 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Black hole not so much

Yes, I watched ALL of the games he played for the Clippers. What we, clippers fans, saw was someone who a dependable scorer and firece rebounder. He doers demand the ball alot and make some bonehead decisions but this is true for many primary scoring threats. Randolph played with Baron Davis and Al Thornton and did not seem like a particular blackhole. I am sure in Memphis he won’t be the primary concern if things go bad.
Speaking of the Grizzlies, I would definitely say that Gay is a worse team player than Z-bo.

http://www.clipperscurse.com/

by ClippersCurse on Sep 18, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a Clippersfan

I’d like to say that Memphis is going to have an intresting time putting these pieces together. I like Zach, I really do; but he was interfering with our 2010 plans. If his contract wasn’t 17Mils, we would have loved to have kept Randolph. I think our intentions were to trade away Camby or Kaman first, but when that failed, they looked to trade Randolph. But of course, when AI, Gay, Mayo, or Conley can’t score, Randolph can be that guilding light! Goodluck,.

Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!

by JackduhSun on Sep 18, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know how to fix your problem

Make the NBA change the rules so that they can play with five balls!

This way, Iverson won’t give a rant about not getting the ball, Z-Bo won’t go to airballing three’s as his way of making a rant, and Mayo will continue to pretend that he’s a point guard. Also, the other two Grizzlies on the court can also have the ball when they want it. It’s a win-win-win-win-win situation!

"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway

by LACK on Sep 20, 2009 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you turtle.

Thanks for the mention and editing.

http://www.clipperscurse.com/

by ClippersCurse on Sep 18, 2009 4:52 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No problem

Thanks for taking the time to get involved.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Sep 19, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zach averages two assists per game

For a starting PF, I guess that is somewhere around average. He does work hard; however, his airballed three’s, his fatness, and his terrible defense have hurt his rep.

Rasheed Wallace is a much better defender, three-point shooter, technical foul magnet, and passer than Z-Bo. However, Z-Bo has the edge in post scoring.

"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway

by LACK on Sep 20, 2009 9:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Zach off to a great start

does not showing up for consecutive scheduled player appearances with no excuse count as a disappointment?

by xangoir on Sep 24, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It could.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Sep 24, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really don't understand why the Grizz would want Z-Bo AND AI

IF they were smart, they’d get Kenyon Martin. Less offense, but a WHOLE lot more defense to make them more balanced. Plus, they’d take a lot of payroll pressure off the Nuggets.

"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway

by LACK on Sep 28, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One guess is

Zbo is an offesnive beast. ZBo is still not showing any signs of slowing down in terms of offensive productions. KMart however, isn’t really that reliable in terms of offense anymore. Also, Zbo is a beast on rebounds. KMart? Never really as good as Zbo. And I’d also be a bit skeptical of how well KMart’s knees hold up.

Btw, when does KMart’s contract expire and how much per year? Any player options?

by JackduhSun on Sep 29, 2009 2:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

K-Mart

Is on a $16 million contract through next season, though he could terminate after this year (newsflash, he won’t give up that kind of money).

So basically they’re on same contract and, as far as I can estimate, there is basically no chance in hell that the Nuggets would trade for Zbo.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Sep 29, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I knew it was pretty hefty,

so why would anybody want KMart? Is production is clearly on the decline. Zbo is the better way to go, that is unless Memphis wants to work a buyout with KMart, but why forfeit that kind of money right?

by JackduhSun on Sep 30, 2009 3:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Congratulations. You’ve proven that ZBo is less lazy than fellow notorious malcontent Rasheed Wallace. Not sure what that has to do with him being a star. Snottiness aside, I’d like to think of laziness as a lack of reaching one’s potential. ZBo can be lazy and a productive player. He just sucks at defense and fitting into the flow of the game. The latter is difficult to quantify, maybe ast % tell a bit of a story (compared to the NBA as a whole, not cherry picking one player), but can just as well be identified by watching the games. Maggette is a great example of this low ast/low pass ball-hogginess, as I’m sure you’re very well aware of. I think ZBo could be a good fit on some playoff teams, however his bad decision making (just watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4xH85iDDIs) lack of defensive commitment and complete inability to play a role in the fast break transition game greatly limits those places where he can fit. A servicable role player in catered positions but not a star.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Oct 13, 2009 5:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You're right about all but...

The AST%, Z-Bo is pretty much average for a power forward. His methodology in picking one guy wasn’t sound, but his result was pretty correct in terms of that one statistic.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Oct 13, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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