Enough Balls? Exploring Usage Percentages.

by djturtleface on Sep 5, 2009 11:39 AM CDT Comment 9 comments

Is there going to be enough touches to keep the smile on Zach's face?

One of the motifs of the mainstream media's coverage of the Memphis Grizzlies this season is claiming that the Grizzlies have added too many offensive players, and, since basketball is only played with one ball at a time, all five of them won't be able to shoot enough to be happy.

Exploration occurs across the jump. Also please everyone feel free to comment, I'd love to see some fresh faces.

The root of the argument is that the Grizzlies didn't need offense with young wing scorers Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. The root of that argument is wrong. While it is true that you would prefer to have a team that's a happy medium between offense and defense, the Grizzlies really, really struggled to score last season. According to Hollinger's statistics, which aren't my favorite but are easy to read, the Grizzlies were 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. That is very bad. More, better offense was absolutely needed.

So we know that the Grizzlies added offense with Randolph's acquisition, but the big question that this post is actually meant to address, is whether the Grizzlies will be able to get the ball in the hands of their high usage players often enough to keep them happy and keep the offense running smoothly. Without further ado, usage statistics from last year:

	Conley	Mayo	Gay	Z-Bo	M. Gasol
Usage	17.9%	24.5%	25.6%	28.1%	18.3%

With the help of a calculator you'll be pleased to note that the usage percentages come out to 114.4%. Try to test me at home, I dare you.

Now, if you don't mind, I'd like to show you the same table from a few playoff teams: the Magic, Lakers, Nuggets, Trailblazers, and the Cavaliers. (Note: Not necessarily starters. Went by most minutes at each position.)

	Nelson	Lee	Turko	Lewis	Howard	Total
Usage	23.2%	15.5%	23.0%	22.0%	26.1%	109.8

	Fisher	Bryant	Ariza	Odom	P. Gasol	Total
Usage	14.7%	32.2%	16.7%	18.1%	20.4%	102.1

	Billups	Smith	Anthony	Martin	Nene	Total
Usage	21.8%	24.2%	31.5%	17.7%	18.1%	113.3

	Blake	B. Roy	Outlaw	Aldridge	Pryzbilla	Total
Usage	16.9%	27.5%	22.0%	23.7%	10.2%	100.3

	Williams	West	LeBron	Varajeo	Big Z	Total
Usage	23.4%	16.7%	33.8%	14.2%	23.8%	111.9

So what's the point? Well let me tell you what I cull from these charts in bullet form:

The Grizzlies' projected total of 114.4% seems high compared to these top-tier teams, but not absurdly high.
Even though Zach Randolph gets a ton of flak for his shot selection, his usage percentage is not so different from a player either LaMarcus Aldridge or even, gasp, fossilized Big Z. Still it is quite high, even being above Brandon Roy's.
Rudy Gay's usage is the highest of the Grizzlies last season, and is almost certainly too high given his production, being right around Brandon Roy's. I would look for it to shrink a small amount this season.
Given his production and skill-set, Marc Gasol is probably using a few too many possessions. Look for Gasol to focus more on defense next season with Randolph around to score in the post. While Pryzbilla's usage is too low, Anderson Varajeo is an acceptable model.
Neither Rudy Gay nor O.J. Mayo was particularly efficient last season. Look at Nene's or Pau Gasol's usage, who were both among the league leaders in efficiency last season. I would argue sometimes less shots can equal the same production. Look for Rudy and O.J. to follow that trend this season.

Looks to me like there isn't really much of a problem with shot distribution here, especially when you consider that the Grizzlies ran a relatively slow tempo offense last season, about 3 possessions per game below league average. This season I expect Coach Hollins, based on some of his comments, to drive up the pace, which should get the Grizzlies another 5 possessions per game or so. While that might not sound like much, given the distribution of usage percentages, those extra possessions probably means that most of the Grizzlies will have about the same number of shots to go around this year as last.

That is, unless Allen Iverson signs.

UPDATE: As far as possession redistribution in percentages goes, there are two options to get down to a similar number as other teams (about 109%). Each of the high usage players could reduce a decent bit, especially Rudy and Zach Randolph, probably accounting for about two shots each if the Grizzlies play at the same pace. Or Marc Gasol could follow the Varajeo/Pryzibilla path, in which case Rudy and Zach would only need to give up about one shot a game. I consider the second of these paths, with Marc as a designated hustle player and enforcer, the more desirable outcome.

0 recs | Comment 9 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

To me, as an outsider

It wasn’t just that the Grizzlies added offensive players, but the TYPE of offensive player(s) they added.

They already had an offense and key players who are light on passing and playmaking, so adding others of that ilk is what I’d be concerned about. High usage, low efficiency.

Now, Z-Bo is actually efficient. He’s a terrific post scorer. But, his offense doesn’t help anyone else score, so his high usage rate and ball dominating style hurts the overall offense even though his own offense is efficient and effective. And that’s ignoring his really bad defense. His offense is pyrite.

I’d argue you need a DIFFERENT offense, more than just more offense. For a team that nearly set a record for lack of assists, Z-Bo is the exact wrong way to go. As would AI, of course.

If you have the ball in the hands of guys who can make plays for themself and others, like Conley or Mayo, then things will improve. As long as the ball comes to die in the hands of Gay or Z-Bo, the offensive problems will continue even if their raw numbers are “good”.

I think the same problems will be exacerbated this season. I get what you mean about your team truly needing more offense because of their struggles, but I’d argue you need more playmaking and unselfish offensive players, over adding a guy with the capability to score but not anything else on offense.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Sep 5, 2009 3:23 PM CDT reply actions

Zach isn’t actually that efficient. TS mark of 53.1% is decidedly average.

"If the Lakers are Hollywood, then we are South Central." - Clipper fan.

by Cablinasian on Sep 5, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess I was just being nice

He shoots a ton, but gets to the line a nice amount… but I guess his ton-o-shooting negates all his line-getting-to. I obviously didn’t look at his percentages recently though.

Plus, he’s fallen more in love with that jumper. OH ZACH.

Z-Bo woulda’ coulda’ been the best 6th man scoring rebounder David Lee type… if he only wasn’t made a max player!

Morty

by Mortimer on Sep 6, 2009 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed.

I agree with everything you say. A playmaking type of power-forward would have been much more helpful for the Grizzlies. The problem is that those really weren’t available. Think of the top 15 or so power-forwards in the league, and how many would you describe as a playmaker?

A very, very elite few.

I don’t mean to support the acquisition of Zach Randolph, but I also don’t think that it will be nearly as detrimental as many of the national media pundits claim.

Also look for the question of Grizzlies as blackholes to come up in a post soon.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Sep 7, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions

I get ya needed a PF

And a playmaking PF doesn’t really exist, so I wasn’t suggesting there was one to go get.

But Zach should really exacerbate the current ball-movement problems, because that’s just his style. I, as an outsider, would rather the Grizz simply make-do with a much worse PF, or play a Gasol/Thabeet frontcourt, over someone who simply shouldn’t be in the long term plans for the Grizzlies.

I just don’t think you’ll want Zach on your team after this season. He just doesn’t help.

And getting only a LITTLE better, when the Grizzlies need draft picks and development, doesn’t do enough in the long run. I think you’re better served having no one, even a downright awful player, at PF, over Zach Randolph. Because, you’re not planning on being a very good team, and trying for MAYBE a few more wins (which with Zach, is debatable) doesn’t really help when that player isn’t part of the long term plans.

You need draft picks and development over Z-Bo. To me, anywho!

Mortimer

PS: I’m gonna go read your other post. This is good stuff!

I just think you’ll see, like every other fanbase that had Z-Bo, that it’d be better to not have him at all. He just doesn’t help.

by Mortimer on Sep 8, 2009 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Overall, the solution is better perimeter playmaking

Either via Mayo and Conley’s development, trade, or the draft.

I can’t really complain that a big man doesn’t make plays, since that isn’t usually their role, but Z-Bo is another guy who NEEDS touches to be effective, who also doesn’t pass much.

I don’t think all hope is lost, playmaking wise, as Conley and Mayo are nice players. I’d just rather the ball would be in their hands more, over having a guy like Z-Bo who will demand the ball.

Morty

by Mortimer on Sep 8, 2009 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed.

But remember that the Grizzlies have 3 starting perimeter players they trust, and while those players don’t pass well, it could either a sign of immaturity or an inherent flaw.

It’s too early to trade them for nickels on the dime because of the chance that their poor passing is an inherent flaw. Once they reach full value in a year or two it might be necessary to shuffle them, but not just yet.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Sep 8, 2009 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions

I wouldn't trade Mayo or Conley either

Both CAN pass, and seem willing to share the ball willingly, and should develop that further as they grow.

I would certainly sell high on Rudy Gay before everyone figures out his big flaws will likely hold him back. The low efficiency, the total lack of passing, the lack of defense… he’s got the body and skills to be really nice, but I think he is what he is— a guy who can score when given enough shots, but doesn’t score enough to warrant that many shots, and aside from a cool dunk here and there it doesn’t really help the team win.

Keep Conley and Mayo, trade Gay. Hope Z-Bo has learned some things in the last 3 years. That’s my basic recipe for the Grizzles right now!

Morty

by Mortimer on Sep 9, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions